Predicting the 2026 Middle East Business Landscape

Rather than marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is significantly viewed as a combination year, in which diversification-led development becomes more deeply embedded in the region's economic design, decreasing reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing durability to external shocks. Forecasts from significant institutions broadly assemble on a more powerful GCC development profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic need, continued non-oil expansion, and (to differing degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

The World Bank, on the other hand, jobs 3.2 percent growth in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. The IMF Sees momentum improving, with GCC output development projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift toward more positive total conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) tasks international growth alleviating to 3.1 percent in 2026, with sophisticated economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies simply above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would put the region materially ahead of the world average and somewhat above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, reinforcing the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that local threat conditions stay consisted of and reform momentum holds.

Information from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors already account for more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has continued to increase as governments broaden financial investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is projected to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and rising financial investment in technology and AI-related facilities.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

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Public-sector financial investment and reform stay main to sustaining this pattern. Policy steps targeted at attracting foreign direct financial investment, easing foreign ownership rules, broadening capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil expansion and minimize the area's direct exposure to oil price volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the growth outlook, oil revenues are expected to play a supportive role in 2026.

Oxford Economics anticipates Brent crude costs to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. However, oil supply is anticipated to rise again in the second half of the year, with a full unwinding of staying production caps most likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions throughout the GCC remain broadly supportive of growth. Inflation is anticipated to stay low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent across the area in 2026. Steady prices are helping protect real household earnings and underpin consumer spending, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.